The September 2026 Nifty index rejig could see drastic shifts in India’s most important benchmark indices, with BSE Ltd. expected to join the Nifty 50 and Wipro Ltd. expected to leave, Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research said.
The brokerage is also predicting that some other stocks will move between Nifty 50, Nifty Next 50, Nifty 100, Midcap and Smallcap indices. The changes could result in huge passive fund flows as index-tracking funds will start to re-evaluate their portfolios after the official rebalancing.
According to Nuvama analysts Abhilash Pagaria and Anisha Gupta, BSE has a much higher free-float market capitalisation and is a good candidate for inclusion in the Nifty 50. The brokerage estimates that BSE will generate around $741 million in inflows while Wipro would receive around $246 million in outflows due to the change.
Nifty 50: BSE Tipped to Replace Wipro
The biggest headline change in the September rejig is expected to be BSE entering the Nifty 50 instead of Wipro.
Nuvama believes BSE meets the requirements for inclusion under the existing Nifty index methodology. The exchange operator is moving up from the Nifty Midcap 150 to the Nifty 100, and with the increasing free-float market capitalisation, it could be a part of India's benchmark index.
The brokerage has also identified TVS Motor as its backup candidate in case NSE Indices makes changes to the existing methodology.
For BSE, to be included in the Nifty 50 would be a huge step and it will allow it to increase the visibility of its stock with institutional investors and passive funds.
Nifty Next 50: Multiple Major Changes
The Nifty Next 50 is also expected to see huge churn.
Nuvama expects Wipro, Vedanta Aluminium, Hitachi Energy, Idea and Polycab to be included in the index. BHEL is a borderline candidate for inclusion.
On the other side, Indian Hotels, REC, United Spirits, Shree Cement and Lodha are among the stocks tipped to exit. Mazagon Dock is considered a borderline exit candidate.
Similar changes are expected to be reflected in the Nifty 100, as stocks move from index categories based on their market capitalisation and eligibility.
Midcap Indices Could See Significant Churn
The changes are for the Nifty Midcap 150, Midcap 100 and Midcap 50 indices.
Nuvama expects Mazagon Dock, Lodha, Indian Hotels, REC, United Spirits, Meesho and Hindustan Copper to be among the names entering various midcap baskets.
At the same time, BSE, Idea, Power India, Polycab and BHEL are expected to exit these indices as they graduate to larger index categories.
Embassy Office Parks REIT is also expected to be included in the Nifty Midcap 150 although it is on the borderline.
These moves would play an important role for stocks moving into bigger indices as inclusion can increase institutional ownership and passive investment flows.
REITs Could Enter Nifty Equity Indices
The rejig could also bring real estate investment trusts or REITs into India’s equity indices more broadly.
Following a SEBI circular that made REITs eligible for inclusion in Nifty equity indices, Nuvama expects Embassy Office Parks REIT and Brookfield India REIT to be among those included in the reshuffle.
Embassy Office Parks REIT is considered a borderline candidate for the Nifty Midcap 150 while Brookfield India REIT is expected to enter the Nifty Smallcap 250.
The inclusion of REITs would be another change in the composition of India’s benchmark equity indices and could increase passive investment in the listed real estate sector.
Nifty 500: Stocks Tipped for Entry and Exit
The broader Nifty 500 index could also undergo some changes as well.
Nuvama expects Vedanta Aluminium, Cupid, Embassy REIT and TD Power Systems to be among the likely entrants.
On the exit side, BBTC, Blue Dart and SBFC Finance are among the names identified by the brokerage.
As investors, these changes are important because Nifty 500 membership affects the portfolios of index funds and exchange-traded funds that track the benchmark.
Smallcap Indices:
- Jubilant FoodWorks,
- Tata Elxsi Among Likely Entrants
The Nifty Smallcap indices are also expected to undergo a major reshuffle.
Jubilant FoodWorks, Tata Elxsi, Exide Industries, LIC Housing Finance and KIMS are potential entrants in the Nifty Smallcap 250, Smallcap 100 and Smallcap 50.
Piramal Finance, Poonawalla Fincorp and Aster DM Healthcare are among the stocks expected to exit multiple smallcap baskets as their market-cap position and index eligibility change.
Some of these companies may move into larger indices at the same time, so a departure from one basket does not necessarily mean a bad thing for the stock.
Expected Timeline for September 2026 Rejig
Nuvama said its analysis is based on the average market capitalisation cut-off through July 31, 2026.
The announcement will be made in the second half of August, and the new index composition will be effective from September 30, 2026.
The current list is brokerage expectations (not actual changes in indices), and the final decision will be taken by the index committee.
Two Key Risks to the Forecast
Nuvama has mentioned two big risks that could affect its projections.
The first is an update of NSE Indices' rebalancing methodology. If the eligibility criteria are changed, the ranking of the potential entrants and exits may be changed.
The second risk is a significant change in free-float factors before the final cut-off date. Since free-float market capitalisation is a key factor in index selection and weighting, changes in shareholding structures or free-float calculations could affect the final list.
Why the Nifty Rejig Matters for Investors
Index rebalancing can have a direct impact on stock prices because passive funds and ETFs tracking these indices generally need to buy newly included stocks and sell stocks removed from the benchmark.
Therefore, stocks expected to enter the biggest indices may attract buying interest ahead of the effective date, and those exiting may be susceptible to selling pressure.
The swap of BSE-Wipro in the Nifty 50 is likely to get the most attention. And BSE’s potential inclusion will also bring significant passive inflows, while Wipro could see outflows as funds rebalance their portfolios.
However, investors should take the current projections as estimates until NSE Indices makes an official announcement. Market capitalisation changes, free-float factors, or methodology between now and the final review may still affect the outcome.
With the announcement expected in August and the changes scheduled to take effect on September 30, 2026, investors will be closely watching the final list and the potential flow implications for stocks across the Nifty 50, Next 50, Midcap, Smallcap and Nifty 500 indices.
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